As per the image above, and the 1000 Days over 1.5C before Climate is over 1.5C graphic, we are fast ticking off individual days above the Paris Agreement of 1.5C and Paris 2.0C.
Given that the Paris Agreement doesn’t say anything about what constitutes “passing 1.5C / 2.0C”, I personally view each day above 1.5C and 2.0C a failure, and these continued failures are mounting up, no matter how you decide to report it (see Climate Reporting – Why so many different values).
As per Key Climate Indicators there is no reason to expect anything other than keep ratcheting up these values in the next decade.
The counts shown here are based on “Copernicus ERA-5” daily global 2m surface temperatures (see GMST Data Sets). As per Climate Reporting – Why so many different values the Copernicus data is midway between “Berkeley Earth” (which runs 0.08C hotter) and “NOAA / GISSTemp” (which both run about 0.08C colder). All the GMST Data Sets I have been working with have virtually the same trends, with most of the difference in reported anomaly happening before the 1970s.
Two “The Climate” values are shown in the counts.
- The 1.35C – 1.42C values come from purely using Copernicus ERA-5 data up to April 2024, as per Climate Milestones Copernicus – ERA5.
- The 1.30C – 1.35C values come from averaging all the GMST Data Sets values up to December 2023 (inclusive), as per Climate Milestones – NOAA, GISS, Copernicus, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth
I will aim to update these counts every month (we’ll see). The current numbers are up to 1st April 2024.
Ref: LeSim-132