°C Milestones – From First Appearance to Permanence

  • I was wondering how long it took, from the first month that averaged over a global temperature milestone, until it was permanent.
  • E.g. A month above 0.75C first appears in 1979, and by 2003 all 12 months of every year are above 0.75C.

1000 Days above 1.5C before Trend passes 1.5C?

  • Annoyed with the “we haven’t crossed 1.5C yet” arguments, I wanted to create a graphic which bridges the gap between individual days over 1.5C and when the longer term trendlines get there.
  • I was wondering how many cumulative days we had been above different global temperature milestones
  • It shows that we are likely to have experienced around 1000 individual days where the global temperature anomaly is above 1.5, by the time the “Loess-30-year-window” trend reaches 1.5C

°C Milestones – Copernicus – ERA5

  • This plots out the Copernicus ERA 5 data, baselined to 1850-1900
  • It shows that the Loess-30-year-window trend for Copernicus data has reached 1.35C in September 2024

°C Milestones – Mixed Data Set

  • This plots out all the datasets I’m working with
  • It shows that the Loess-30-year-window trend for the average-of-all-datasets has reached 1.32C in September 2024 (1.315C to be more precise)

Hottest Days On Record Through The years

  • A video graph the progression of the record temperatures through the years.

Warming Tapestry Percent Days Over Milestone

  • For each day, shows the percentage of days-in-the-last-365-days, that were above different Global Temperature Anomaly thresholds
  • E.g. in
    • The most recent 365-days up till 31st Aug 2024:
      • 100% of days over 1.3C
      • 94% of days over 1.4C
      • 79% of days over 1.5C
      • 20% of days over 1.8C
      • 10% of days over 1.9C
      • 2% of days over 2.0C (6 days, so 1.64% to be more accurate)

Globally Shifting Seasons

  • Complicated animated graphic, showing how the global average temperature is occurring at a different time of year, compared to historic. … and how it could progress into the future

Spiral of Global Heat

  • 3D animated graphic, showing how the months are warming

Trends and Projections

  • My preferred trend line is the “Loess 30 year window”.
  • I use this trend line with the 1000 Days above 1.5C before Trend passes 1.5C? graphic
  • I notice that the “date the loess 30 year trend line crosses an warming milestone” seemed to shift way more than I was anticipating. As new months of data were added, the trend line for the last 15 years moves enough to shift the “date the loess 30… ” by around 18 months.
  • This Trends and Projections video was created by me to understand what was going on

Longest Running Average

  • I noticed that the 3-year-running average GMST Anomaly was nearing 1.5C.
  • That lead me to thinking of a new graphic: For each date, what was the longest running average period, that was 01.5C. … And similar, longest running average period, that was 1.0C.
  • So this graphic shows that. E.g. it shows that in December 2009 the 20 year running average was 0.75C

CO2 – Global Warming Stripes – Conferences

  • Added in Nov 2025, as an update to a classic. It shows the CO2 levels (ppm) increasing in the atmosphere (1975 -> 2025), The warming stripes (#ShowYourStripes) with a vertical coloured bar per year, and annotates the dates for various global climate conferences, protocols, agreements.

Global Warming Futures Series

  • I was wondering, if the variation we have had in the past, and I try different projections, when could we get the 1st day over 2C, and the last year under 1.5C.