Update to the version I posted in November 2024. I did make a few changes. I repeated the images (the stills that make up the video) twice, to effectively halve the speed of the video. I changed the white labels at the end to be: 1945, 1965, 1985, 2005, 2025.

Sanity tests: The previous version is written as a python program, so it was mostly just re-running that programme. I tested it by side-by-side comparison of last year video and this (comparing stills of the same frame), and checking the monthly values from 2025 matched those posted by Copernicus.

2024 – November version

The original

Observations

  • No surprise: 2023 and 2024 have been absolutely nuts
  • 2023 / 2024 have been circling around and past the 1.5C paris agreement lower limit
  • 2024 pretty much guaranteed to be over 1.5C.
  • You can see 2016 jump over 1.5C

Sanity Checking the Graphic

  • Given that I am using a running 30 day average, and then plotting every day (ignoring any leap years)…
    • Each year has exactly 365 data points (apart from 1940 and 2024)
    • For months with 30 days, the last day of the month, should exactly match the “Monthly Bulletins” posted by copernicus
    • All non-30-day months should be pretty close to the copernicus bulletin temperatures, but not exactly the same
  • Test:
    • The top image below shows
      • On the left: All years in the spiral, viewed from the top (2024: 1st Jan -> Nov 16th)
      • On the right: a table showing
        • Monthly anomaly numbers from copernicus
        • My 30-day-average-anomaly plotted on the graph
        • My monthly-average data that underlies my graphic. From GMST Data Sets
        • They match great
      • The Green dots are the 2024 monthly temperatures
        • These are the anomalies for each 2024 month, posted by Copernicus in a BlueSky “skeet” (see bottom image below).
        • The Green dots underlay the 2024 line very nicely
      • I have done other tests, but I’m not posting them here.
Screenshot
Screenshot

How this Graphic was created

  • Inspired by a video
    • Featuring “Climate Extremes: At The Abyss?”, on YouTube, featuring Johan Rockström (Director of Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact), Dr Sam Burgess, Daniel Swain, Ph.D.
    • Good grief, it was more complex and refined than I thought it would be.
    • I was annoyed that
      • The original was not baselined to pre-industrial
      • The original stopped in 2021
      • The video was talking about how bad 1.5C is, but then kept choosing graphics that weren’t baselined to pre-industrial (so 1C heating on the graphic wasn’t the same as 1C above pre-industrial
      • I raised this with Daniel Swain, who kindly replied, but I wasn’t hugely satisfied with the answer.
    • I totally underestimated how much refinement had gone into the original
      • How hard could it be.
      • Well the basic wasn’t too bad. A few hours. The refined version … too embarrassed to mention.
  • Get the Copernicus Data (See GMST Data Sets)
  • Calculate the daily Anomaly vs 1850-1900 (See Copernicus 1850-1900 Baseline – Daily GMST Anomaly)
  • Get rid of leap year (every day 366 for a leap year was discarded), to make things easier
  • Run a 30-day-average, so that each day now represents the average anomaly of the previous 30 days
  • Plot a line for every day of each year from Feb 1940 -> November 16th 2024
  • Plot on a 3D graphic, where each line is plotted
    • Each line joins one data point, to the next. E.g. one line from Jan 1st -> Jan 2nd
    • Z-axis is the year. So 1940 at the bottom, 2024 at the top
    • In a circle: Jan at the top, April to the right, July at the bottom, Oct on the left
    • The distance from the centre is the “anomaly vs 1850-1900”
    • The colour goes from Blue -> Red. Blue being colder anomaly. Red being warmer anomaly
    • Design it, so you choose how many “frames per year”, and have this variable
    • For every frame, have the “leading data point” lime green, and fade it back to its orginal poper colour, by the time you get to 1 year before the leading point.
      • You need this, otherwise it is hard to see the latest year being added
  • Refinements
    • While viewing from the top
      • Year is shown in the middle (colour matches year anomaly)
      • Yellow concentric circles, for anomalies: 0C, 0.5C, 1C, 1.5C
      • Months listed around the outside
      • Last 12 months plotted are lime green, fading back to their proper “anomaly colour”
      • I modified the number of frames-per-year to balance how large the file is, how long the video takes, and prioritise more time on the later years. I was aiming for under 3MB
    • Transition from top view to side view
      • Over about 15 images, swing the view from the top to the side
      • Get rid of the concentric yellow lines
      • Get rid of the month labels
    • Side view
      • Years now look like “pancakes” stacked on top of each other
      • Fade in vertical lines to show the anomalies: 0C, 0.5C, 1C, 1.5C